Market Watch  ·  Issue 9  ·  Tuesday 22 September 2026

Watts Happening

The UK energy newsletter that doesn't work for the industry

The Spark

Saudi Arabia has confirmed that Houthi rebels tried to hit Riyadh with a ballistic missile on Saturday, the first time the capital has been targeted since this war opened its new front. The coalition says it was intercepted. No casualties, no damage.

It also says attempts on civilian infrastructure at Yanbu were thwarted. Yanbu is where Saudi Arabia's damaged pipeline reaches the sea, the route built to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

UK gas closed Friday at 198p a therm, up 3.9% in a day. Markets open this morning to a confirmed attempt on the kingdom's last western export route, and nothing hit.

This Week in Watts

How a missile fired at a Saudi port reaches a bill in Britain

Start with what is known, because the gap between claim and confirmation is wide this week. The Houthis said they struck Aramco facilities at Yanbu and caused massive fires. They offered no evidence, Aramco declined to comment, and the Associated Press could not verify it. Saudi Arabia's account is that the attempts were thwarted and the Riyadh missile intercepted. A fuel tank did burn at a depot near Riyadh's airport, photographed by Reuters.

So nothing confirmed was hit, and the attempt itself is the news.

Yanbu matters because of what reaches it. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline, its way around Hormuz, was hit by drones on 10 September and shut the next day. It is still offline, with a partial restart sought within days and full capacity in about six weeks.

The strait matters because of what moves through it. Around 93% of Qatar's LNG leaves that way, and Qatari and Emirati cargoes together are close to a fifth of all liquefied gas traded worldwide. The IEA is blunt about substitutes. There are none, and other plants already run near capacity.

Britain buys almost none of that gas. What reaches us is competition for what is left, and Europe goes into winter badly placed for it. Storage sits around 68% full against an EU target of 80% by December, because Gulf disruption and summer heatwaves stopped it refilling. Asian demand will contest the same cargoes once it turns cold.

Last week ran both ways at once. Aramco found a workaround, selling roughly 60 million barrels for ship-to-ship transfer at Sohar in Oman, and oil fell as stranded-crude fears eased. Then Aramco told European refiners they would get no October crude at all, with sources saying it applied to every European term buyer. Poland's Orlen went shopping for North Sea grades. UK gas fell three sessions running, then jumped 3.9% on Friday.

Then the cap. Ofgem does not forecast it. It sets it, from an average of wholesale prices across a three-month window that is still running.

Look at when each January forecast was published. Cornwall Insight said £1,872 on 26 August, a fortnight before the pipeline was hit. EDF has £2,165, updated 14 September. E.ON Next has £2,131 on the 15th. Bloomberg Economics landed near £2,150 the same week. Every number above £2,100 was set while four to five million barrels a day sat stranded.

The Independent called EDF's forecast independent. EDF sells energy. Cornwall Insight and Bloomberg Economics do not, and they sit £278 apart.

The Bill Buster

Watts on the Market

Quick Watts