Market Watch  ·  Issue 1  ·  Tuesday 2 June 2026

Watts Happening

 

The UK energy newsletter that doesn't work for the industry
The Spark
 

The price cap rose 13% this week. The figure Ofgem published went up 1.3%. Both are true, and the gap between them is the lesson.

The new cap from 1 July works out at £1,862 a year for a typical home, if that home uses energy the way Ofgem used to assume. It no longer does. We're burning 17% less gas and 7% less electricity than the last benchmark. So Ofgem redrew "typical" downward, and the number it printed is £1,663, up from £1,641 (Ofgem, 27 May).

Same unit prices, smaller assumed usage. That 1.3% is what an average home gets for using less. A big house that hasn't gets the unit rises in full.
01 This Week in Watts
 

£1,663 is not your number

Start with what that figure isn't: yours. The cap limits the price per unit, not the size of your bill, and it assumes a home using the new, lower "typical" amounts. A draughty six-bed Victorian on a gas boiler can burn two or three times that. Its gas bill rises by the full 24% (Ofgem, 27 May), not 1.3%. Find your annual gas kWh, add a quarter, and that's your real number.

That 24% is the second story. From 1 July, gas bills rise 24% and electricity by around 5%. Gas is taking nearly five times the hit.

Ofgem put the smaller electricity rise down to more renewable generation in the system this quarter. Gas is still priced off a global market that moves on weather, war and shipping. When that market twitches, your boiler feels it. A caveat, since accuracy is the job: power isn't fully free of gas, which still sets the wholesale price much of the year. But the quarter moved the two apart.

For anyone heating a big house over the next ten years, that gap matters more than the cap. The case for electrifying rests on one assumption: that over time, gas gets dearer relative to electricity. This quarter, it did.

One window is not a trend, though. We won't pretend the gas-to-electricity ratio has reset for good on three months. There's a tidy figure doing the rounds that says it has. We can't stand it up against a source we trust, so it stays out until we can.

If an installer's payback still assumes gas and electricity climb in lockstep, those sums belong to the last decade. Ask to see the unit rates underneath them. A proper quote shows its working.
02 The Bill Buster
 

The £1,500 question for off-grid homes

If you heat an off-grid property on oil or LPG, this is worth £1,500. From 21 July, the Boiler Upgrade Scheme grant for swapping an oil or LPG system for an air-source heat pump rises from £7,500 to £9,000. Off-grid homes only, new applications only (Energy Saving Trust, 2026). Anything already in the system stays at £7,500.

So if an installer wants to file your grant application before 21 July, stop them. A voucher submitted on the 20th is worth £1,500 less than the identical one submitted on the 22nd.

→ Ask: "When are you submitting the BUS voucher?"
03 Watts on the Market
 

Sponsored slot  ·  Unsold this week

Eventually a sponsor sits here: a national installer, manufacturer or green-tech brand worth your time. When one does, here's the promise attached: buying the slot never buys soft coverage anywhere else in the issue. Pan a sponsor's product and they're free to walk. That deal is what makes the rest worth reading.

Free pick this week: before accepting any new tariff, check your real annual kWh against the usage the quote assumes. Ofgem's "typical" figures just fell. A comparison site quoting the old, higher numbers makes the saving look fatter on the page than in your account.

→ Check how the cap affects your bill on Ofgem's site
04 Quick Watts
 
40°C baseline The Climate Change Committee wants mandatory air conditioning in care homes and hospitals within ten years, schools within twenty-five, plus a legal maximum working temperature. It expects 40°C heatwaves UK-wide by mid-century. (CCC, 21 May)
£70bn grid National Grid commits over £70bn to the networks across 2026/27–2030/31. One to watch if you've a stalled grid connection, though it lands on bills too. (National Grid, 14 May)
Peak AC price Cooling kit is up around 17% since April on heatwave demand and shipping costs. One inflatable hot tub nearly doubled in a week, £160 to £299. If you can wait, wait. (The Guardian, 27 May)
£9,000 BUS The off-grid heat pump grant rises to £9,000 from 21 July to March 2027. Oil and LPG homes, new applications only. (Energy Saving Trust, 2026)

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